VMBS ETF: Revisiting VMBS Thesis With RISR As A Hedge (NASDAQ:VMBS)

Just a few months in the past, I penned a cautious article on the Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities Index ETF (NASDAQ:VMBS), as I used to be anxious a few ‘larger for longer’ Federal Reserve maintaining rates of interest excessive and inflicting period losses for long-duration belongings like mortgage-backed securities (“MBS”). Moreover, VMBS, with its 2.6% distribution yield, was quick changing into unattractive in comparison with treasury payments which have been yielding north of 4%.

Since my article, the Federal Reserve have certainly caught to their weapons and raised the Fed Funds price a complete of 525 bps up to now 18 months, taking short-term yields to the best up to now decade (Determine 1).

The truth is, after the Federal Reserve lately raised their financial forecasts within the September Abstract of Financial Projections (“SEP”), boosting their outlook for 2023 U.S. GDP from 0.7-1.2% to 1.9-2.2% and 2024 Fed Funds price from 4.6% to five.1%, buyers took the SEP as an indication that the Fed will keep restrictive financial coverage for many of 2024 and have raised long-term bond yields dramatically in current days as a response (Determine 2).

The rise in bond yields, with the ten 12 months treasury yield lately touching 4.88% intraday, have brought about declines for the VMBS ETF, with the fund now taking a look at a second consecutive 12 months of losses with YTD losses of -2.2% to September 30, 2023 (Determine 3).

Nonetheless, regardless of poor current returns for the VMBS ETF, I consider there could also be a method to hedge away the rising rate of interest publicity of VMBS via a place within the FolioBeyond Various Earnings and Curiosity Price Hedge ETF (RISR).

A 40/60 portfolio of VMBS/RISR would have delivered a robust CAGR return of 10.0% whereas paying a 4%+ distribution yield since RISR’s inception.

Transient Fund Overview

The Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF (“VMBS”) invests primarily in U.S. company MBS securities to generate modest degree of present earnings to buyers. The VMBS ETF solely invests in securities issued by Ginnie Mae (GNMA), Fannie Mae (OTCQB:FNMA), and Freddie Mac (“FHLMC”), so VMBS’ portfolio is taken into account to don’t have any credit score dangers.

Determine 4 reveals the portfolio overview of the VMBS ETF. The fund has near $18 billion in belongings and over 1,100 securities in its portfolio, with a portfolio common period of 6.9 years.

MBS Have Prepayment Threat

As I defined in my prior article, MBS securities have prepayment/extension dangers that aren’t present in different mounted earnings devices. It is because MBS are principally bundles of residence mortgage loans packaged collectively and bought via the federal companies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. When rates of interest decline, MBS securities might have shorter period than initially anticipated as owners prepay and refinance their mortgages on the decrease prevailing rates of interest.

However, when rates of interest are rising, MBS securities might have longer period than initially anticipated as owners keep of their current properties. At present, with 30 year mortgage rates near 8%, the U.S. housing market is actually frozen, and few transactions are occurring, so MBS securities are for much longer period than initially assumed.

RISR Uniquely Positioned To Hedge VMBS Dangers

Not too long ago, I got here throughout a newly launched ETF that seem like uniquely certified to hedge the rate of interest and prepayment dangers related to the VMBS ETF.

The FolioBeyond Various Earnings and Curiosity Price Hedge ETF (“RISR”) owns a portfolio of interest-only (“IO”) mortgage-backed securities (“MBS”) and U.S. treasury bonds.

MBS IO strips are the interest-only money flows stripped from common MBS securities (Determine 5).

Since owners are inclined to have decrease propensity to refinance their mortgages when rates of interest are rising, a portfolio of MBS IO securities will subsequently have destructive period (as prepayments decline on account of rising rates of interest, MBS IO strip worth will increase) whereas amassing constructive carry.

The truth is, the RISR ETF has enviable portfolio statistics of getting a -5 12 months portfolio efficient period and a 7.1% 30-Day SEC yield (Determine 6).

40/60 VMBS/RISR Seem To Be A Profitable Formulation

Wanting on the VMBS and RISR ETFs in live performance, if we design a portfolio with 40% invested in VMBS and 60% invested in RISR, then the general portfolio period shall be successfully zero (0.4 * 6.9 + 0.6 * [-5] = -0.24) whereas the portfolio could also be to generate a mid single digit yield (Determine 7).

Determine 8 reveals the historic modeled returns of this technique in comparison with VMBS by itself since RISR was incepted in October 2021. This 40/60 portfolio of VMBS/RISR has a ten.0% CAGR return with 1.0 Sharpe ratio and a -3.5% most drawdown.

This portfolio additionally would have paid a ~4.0% distribution yield in 2021 and 2022, far surpassing the VMBS ETF’s modest yield (Determine 9).

Too Good To Be True; What’s The Catch?

On paper, the 40/60 portfolio seems too good to be true, because it successfully hedges out period and prepayment threat whereas delivering a ten% complete return. Who would not desire a 10% ‘risk-free’ return?

I consider the remaining threat of this technique is that the 2 belongings aren’t good hedges, i.e. there’s ‘foundation’ threat. Moreover, now we have not but seen the efficiency of the RISR ETF throughout an rate of interest declining surroundings. As rates of interest decline and prepayments rise, will the 40/60 portfolio undergo losses?

With out historic information as reference, I can solely estimate that complete returns won’t be as sturdy in a declining rate of interest surroundings: The VMBS place ought to profit, however much less so than related period treasuries on account of rising prepayments. The MBS IO strip ought to nonetheless generate constructive carry, however might lose worth as period is shortened. Lastly, the lengthy treasury place ought to acquire in worth as rates of interest decline, mitigating among the MBS IO worth declines. The web end result could also be destructive to low single digit complete returns, relying on how aggressive rates of interest decline and owners refinance, inflicting the MBS IO strips to lose worth.

Conclusion

The VMBS ETF gives low-cost publicity to mortgage-backed securities issued by the Federal companies like Fannie Mae. In a rising price surroundings, proudly owning MBS securities is a recipe for poor returns, as MBS have each period threat and extension threat. Nonetheless, buyers could possibly hedge away rising rate of interest dangers related the VMBS ETF by proudly owning the RISR ETF as a hedge.

RISR owns a portfolio of MBS interest-only securities and treasury bonds which have a destructive period however constructive carry. A 40/60 portfolio of VMBS/RISR might neutralize period threat whereas delivering mid single digit distribution yields and excessive single digit complete returns in a rising rate of interest surroundings.