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open vault door and money dollars coming out.

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This text was coproduced with Dividend Sensei.

The aim of those Recession watch updates is not that will help you time the market, as a result of even good financial timing cannot do this.

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Charlie Bilello

And even good financial timing is not sufficient to

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Charlie Bilello

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Charlie Bilello

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Cleveland Fed

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Every day Shot

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Charlie Bilello

Daily Shot

Every day Shot

Daily Shot

Every day Shot

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CME Group

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Federal Reserve Financial institution of St. Louis

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Atlanta Fed

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Every day Shot

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Every day Shot

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Charlie Bilello

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Statista

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Every day Shot

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Federal Reserve

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Bloomberg

yCharts

YCharts

yCharts

YCharts

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Every day Shot

yCharts

YCharts

yCharts

YCharts

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Finbold

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Soc Gen

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Every day Shot

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Every day Shot

NY Fed

NY Fed

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Every day Shot

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David Rice

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Every day Shot

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Ben Carlson

Earnings Decline S&P Trough Earnings Historic Trough PE Of 15 (higher finish of the vary) Decline From Present Stage Peak Decline From File Highs
0% 229 3439 16.9% -28.6%
5% 218 3267 21.0% -32.2%
10% 206 3095 25.2% -35.8%
13% 199 2992 27.7% -37.9%
15% 195 2923 29.3% -39.3%
20% 183 2751 33.5% -42.9%

Earnings Decline S&P Trough Earnings Historic Trough PE Of 14 (historic mid-range) Decline From Present Stage Peak Decline From File Highs
0% 229 3210 22.4% -33.4%
5% 218 3049 26.3% -36.7%
10% 206 2889 30.2% -40.1%
13% (common since WWII) 199 2793 32.5% -42.1%
15% 195 2728 34.0% -43.4%
20% 183 2568 37.9% -46.7%

Earnings Decline S&P Trough Earnings Historic Trough PE Of 15 Decline From Present Stage Peak Decline From File Highs
0% 229 2981 27.9% -38.1%
5% 218 2832 31.5% -41.2%
10% 206 2683 35.1% -44.3%
13% 199 2593 37.3% -46.2%
15% 195 2533 38.7% -47.4%
20% 183 2384 42.4% -50.5%
25% (Joint Financial Committee, 3 Month Debt Default State of affairs) 5% likelihood 172 2235 46.0% -53.6%

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Treasury, Moody’s, JP Morgan, Goldman

Bear Market ZEUS Earnings Development 60/40 S&P Nasdaq
2022 Stagflation -11% -21% -28% -35%
Pandemic Crash -10% -13% -34% -13%
2018 -13% -9% -21% -17%
2011 -1% -16% -22% -11%
Nice Recession -24% -44% -58% -59%
Common -12% -21% -33% -27%
Median Decline -11% -16% -28% -17%

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